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Who will excel, struggle at Formula One's Las Vegas Grand Prix?
Mercedes AMG Petronas Motorsport driver Lewis Hamilton (44) of Team Great Britain and Red Bull Racing Honda driver Max Verstappen (1) of Team Netherlands and McLaren F1 driver Lando Norris (4) of Team Great Britain smile and wave to the crowd after the 2023 United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Who will excel, struggle at Formula One's Las Vegas Grand Prix?

By Alyssa Clang  |  Last updated 11/14/23

As the clock ticks down to Formula One's inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix this weekend, the talk centers on the racing surface, chilly weather and difficulty of the 3.8-mile track. F1 hasn't raced in Vegas since a one-off Caesars Palace race in 1982, but this new circuit is wildly different than that one. Each team will enter this weekend knowing little about what to expect.

This season has been relatively predictable, with Red Bull snatching victories in every race but one (it has Carlos Sainz and Ferrari to thank for that imperfect record). But the sheer number of unknowns at play in the Las Vegas Grand Prix means it may throw up some surprises.

Who will excel? Who will struggle? Here's who we're keeping an eye on:

EXCEL: Ferrari. The Vegas track most resembles Monza and Singapore. Ferrari famously crushed both of those races this season, finishing third and fourth at Monza and first and fourth at Singapore. The Italian team's 2023 car is well-suited to long, punishing straights, and the Vegas track serves up longer and more punishing straights than anywhere else. Ferrari should be a contender on race day if its engines stay operable in the cold.

STRUGGLE: Mercedes. It has endured a rough few weeks. While Mercedes's season appeared to be on an upswing — and Lewis Hamilton secured a brilliant second-place finish in Mexico — the car fell far behind the pack in Brazil and looked worryingly slow. Team principal Toto Wolff called the 2023 Brazilian Grand Prix his team's "worst weekend in 13 years" and vowed to get to the bottom of the failures that caused it. 

Mercedes, however, has always struggled to generate heat for its tires, and that could make Vegas an even worse weekend for it than Brazil. Tire warmth will be key to grip in the chilly nighttime air in Vegas. 

EXCEL: Williams. It's tough not to root for Williams, with its likable driver pairing and ambitious young team principal. But while Williams still has a long way to go before it's capable of challenging F1's usual suspects, Vegas could help it make up a significant amount of ground. 

The 2023 Williams car is blisteringly fast on the straights and suffers lower tire degradation than its competitors. Plus, it's a home race for rookie Williams driver Logan Sargeant, who will receive lots of support from American fans. Sargeant won his first F1 points on home soil a few weeks ago in Austin, and he'll be looking to repeat the feat in Sin City.

STRUGGLE: Alpine. Adrift in sixth in the F1 Constructor Standings with huge gaps to Aston Martin in front and Williams behind, French team Alpine isn't really fighting for anything. And that's good news this weekend because Vegas looks set to be Alpine's absolute worst track in the 2023 calendar. 

All of the things Alpine is good at — fast corners, banking and wet weather performance — are absent. All the things Alpine struggles with — long straights, slow corners and low temperatures — are present. It'll be a miracle if Alpine places both of its cars in the top 15. Plus, with his "No. 1 driver" spot under threat by new hire Pierre Gasly, Alpine driver Esteban Ocon has been driving erratically to save his season. And when Ocon drives erratically, people crash.

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